PEW Future of the Internet Report II
Read it here. Full report PDF here.
By 2020:
What do you think?
By 2020:
# A low-cost global network will be thriving and creating new opportunities in a “flattening” world.
# Humans will remain in charge of technology, even as more activity is automated and “smart agents” proliferate. However, a significant 42% of survey respondents were pessimistic about humans’ ability to control the technology in the future. This significant majority agreed that dangers and dependencies will grow beyond our ability to stay in charge of technology. This was one of the major surprises in the survey.
# Virtual reality will be compelling enough to enhance worker productivity and also spawn new addiction problems.
# Tech “refuseniks” will emerge as a cultural group characterized by their choice to live off the network. Some will do this as a benign way to limit information overload, while others will commit acts of violence and terror against technology-inspired change.
# People will wittingly and unwittingly disclose more about themselves, gaining some benefits in the process even as they lose some privacy.
# English will be a universal language of global communications, but other languages will not be displaced. Indeed, many felt other languages such as Mandarin, would grow in prominence.
At the same time, there was strong dispute about those futuristic scenarios among notable numbers of 742 respondents to survey conducted by the Pew Internet & American Life Project and Elon University. Those who raised challenges believe that governments and corporations will not necessarily embrace policies that will allow the network to spread to under-served populations; that serious social inequalities will persist; and that “addiction” is an inappropriate notion to attach to people’s interest in virtual environments.
The experts and analysts also split evenly on a central question of whether the world will be a better place in 2020 due to the greater transparency of people and institutions afforded by the internet: 46% agreed that the benefits of greater transparency of organizations and individuals would outweigh the privacy costs and 49% disagreed.
What do you think?
posted by Dean Terry at 8:38 PM
2 Comments:
Hmm... this is a toughie!
I'm split 50/50 on this. On the one hand, more openness is better; but on the other hand there is going to be so much information (and dis-information) out there, it's going to overwhelm us.
What to believe and what not to; that is the question.
In the future, I'll be looking for a reliable truth-finder, which will probably look like some kind of cyborg, a merging of something fleshy (me?) and something non-biological (maybe imbedded in my medulla oblongata). I'll ask it/myself, "Are these facts correct?", and it/I will try to find out for me. It/I'll show me the sources it used to make its decision, and I'll give that information to a separate truth-verifier. Maybe this will take place in less than a second. Maybe the information will be delivered to me in a subtle, almost sub-conscious way.
I think human nature will not stay exactly the same.
Sorry about the confusing "It/I" stuff above. New language would be good.
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